The climate crisis is serious

Climate change causes “FIRES”

Climate change is complex so I use an acronym as a memory aid if I ever have to do an “elevator pitch” about the dangers of climate change. First I start by explaining how climate change warms the planet and this accelerates the water cycle.

But what does that mean for us and nature? That’s when I use the acronym FIRES as a memory aid. Global warming will increase:-
Famines: We are already losing 30% of today’s potential crops. But even this total output could be cut by another third by 2100!
Instability: We’re facing economic instability as climate change may cut our incomes 19% by 2050. This, while increasing heatwaves aggravate personal stress and increase crime, destabilise domestic politics, and even becomes a threat multiplier for war.
Refugees: By 2050 140 million people – nearly half the population of the USA – will be internally displaced people – a 27% increase on today’s IDP’s at 110 million.
Extinctions:
Superstorms:

Famine

Remember that because the water cycle has accelerated and some rainfall patterns have shifted, droughts will increase. Gradually the climate zones will shift – and what were once drylands will become deserts. Which is devastating, as some 2.7 billion people live in them (Carbon Brief 2019). These tend to be developing economies that rely more heavily on their agricultural sector.

As the United Nations summarises it:-

Global warming impacts everyone’s food and water security. Climate change is a direct cause of soil degradation, which limits the amount of carbon the earth is able to contain. Some 500 million people today live in areas affected by erosion, while up to 30 per cent of food is lost or wasted as a result. Meanwhile, climate change limits the availability and quality of water for drinking and agriculture.

In many regions, crops that have thrived for centuries are struggling to survive, making food security more precarious. Such impacts tend to fall primarily on the poor and vulnerable. Global warming is likely to make economic output between the world’s richest and poorest countries grow wider.
Climate Summary – United Nations 75th anniversary – 2020

The World Health Organisation says people are dying right now:-

Climate change is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes and they are increasing in scale, frequency and intensity.

Research shows that 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change. Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year, from under-nutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress alone.
The direct damage costs to health (excluding costs in health-determining sectors such as agriculture and water and sanitation) is estimated to be between US$ 2–4 billion per year by 2030.
Areas with weak health infrastructure – mostly in developing countries – will be the least able to cope without assistance to prepare and respond.
Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through better transport, food and energy use choices can result in very large gains for health, particularly through reduced air pollution.
The World Health Organisation Oct 2023

“1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels, then only about 5%–8% of global food production would be at risk… …Livestock farming would be affected, as well as the risks to crop production, he said, and many areas were likely to suffer large increases in water scarcity. The researchers examined the impacts of climatic changes on 27 of the most important food crops and seven types of livestock.”

That does sound so bad? But if we let it run away…

“Many of the world’s most important food-growing areas will see temperatures increase and rainfall patterns alter drastically if temperatures rise by about 3.7C, the forecast increase if emissions stay high.”

Still not so bad. The punchline?

“A third of global food production will be at risk by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current rate, new research suggests.“

The Guardian May 2021.

NASA confirms that some places could lose a quarter of their crops later this century! NASA (Nov 2021) shows where is vulnerable – 2 minutes.

But if we let climate change hit 3.7 degrees – it rises to a third of global food production that could be at risk!

Instability

Climate change damages economies, aggravates interpersonal conflicts between individuals and even perceived groups, and when impacting food and water security can even act as a threat multiplier that sparks geopolitical stress – even war.

Economic impacts:

According to the journal Nature, we’re facing a 19% income reduction across the next 26 years – which is 6 times the cost to leave fossil fuels. The cost is even worse in some locations.

Global projections of macroeconomic climate-change damages typically consider impacts from average annual and national temperatures over long time horizons^1,2,3,4,5,6. Here we use recent empirical findings from more than 1,600 regions worldwide over the past 40 years to project sub-national damages from temperature and precipitation, including daily variability and extremes^7,8. Using an empirical approach that provides a robust lower bound on the persistence of impacts on economic growth, we find that the world economy is committed to an income reduction of 19% within the next 26 years independent of future emission choices (relative to a baseline without climate impacts, likely range of 11–29% accounting for physical climate and empirical uncertainty). These damages already outweigh the mitigation costs required to limit global warming to 2 °C by sixfold over this near-term time frame and thereafter diverge strongly dependent on emission choices. Committed damages arise predominantly through changes in average temperature, but accounting for further climatic components raises estimates by approximately 50% and leads to stronger regional heterogeneity. Committed losses are projected for all regions except those at very high latitudes, at which reductions in temperature variability bring benefits. The largest losses are committed at lower latitudes in regions with lower cumulative historical emissions and lower present-day income.
Kotz, M et al “The Economic Commitment of Climate Change” Nature 2024

Interpersonal conflicts

Time Magazine described the potential impacts of increased violent crime and conflict among people that are roasting hot. It’s subtle – but it builds over time.

Warmer temperatures and extreme weather exacerbate social stress and worsen economic outcomes; these in turn affect political behavior. A landmark 2013 paper in the journal Science found that a change in temperature of one standard deviation was associated with a 2.3% increase in interpersonal conflict rates and a 13.2% increase in the rate of intergroup conflict. By 2050, temperatures are expected to rise by two standard deviations in most places across the globe and by as much as four standard deviations in some places.

Those percentages may seem small, but in many cases they can be enough to lead to serious problems. “A lot of the way in which climate change is really bad is like death by 1,000 cuts,” says Solomon Hsiang, author of the 2013 study and director of the Global Policy Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley. “Some of the biggest problems are situations in which we don’t realize we’re being affected by the climate, because then we don’t do anything to protect ourselves.”…

…In these tumultuous times—both politically and climatically—there are several key factors of human behavior to consider. Research has shown that warm temperatures increase the odds of violent interpersonal interactions: cities see spikes in violent crime and police are more likely to use force in extreme heat. Studies have also found that people dealing with extreme heat are more likely to distrust outsiders. And research has shown that challenging weather shapes political decisions. “When people are uncomfortable, weather explains some of that,” says Cohen. “It can explain how they respond to public opinion surveys, we know that it affects how they vote, or if they vote at all.”

The research on these linkages is fairly nascent, and it’s hard to lay out precisely the subtle role climate is playing in our current turmoil. But, in recent weeks, hundreds of thousands have been displaced in California and Oregon, more than 10 million acres of farmland have been damaged by a storm in Iowa, and a pair of hurricanes have flooded parts of Louisiana and Texas. Temperatures across the country are on track to make this one of the hottest years on record. It’s hard to imagine this upheaval isn’t subtly feeding into the zeitgeist.

The future: what could come next if climate change is left unchecked

Climate change’s role in shaping politics and geopolitics today may be subtle, but in the future, its influence is certain to be more pronounced—and concerning. If climate change is left unchecked, bigger storms, unsurvivable heat and disappearing coastlines will leave billions displaced or struggling to survive. This would in turn create unprecedented strain on political and social institutions, not mention the global economy.

No one really knows exactly how the fallout will occur. But there’s a strong scientific basis to assume that without urgent action to stem emissions we’ll be in for many more years and decades of disturbing newspaper headlines—and they won’t be just about storms and heat waves.

Time Magazine – September 2020

Threat Multiplier

All these factors are so well established that the term threat multiplier is now an established military doctrine. Back in 2007 the Pentagon called it a a ‘Threat Multiplier – and now the term or phrases nearly identical to it are are almost universal across the world’s defence forces. For more on the Pentagon’s history with the term see “The Briefer” – Council on Strategic Risks – Jan 2023. For a more global guide – try the Climate Security wiki.

Climate change is a major threat to international peace and security. The effects of climate change heighten competition for resources such as land, food, and water, fueling socioeconomic tensions and, increasingly often, leading to mass displacement.

Climate is a risk multiplier that makes worse already existing challenges. Droughts in Africa and Latin America directly feed into political unrest and violence.
Climate Summary – United Nations 75th anniversary – 2020

Refugees

The World Bank estimates that, in the absence of action, more than 140 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia will be forced to migrate within their regions by 2050.
Climate Summary – United Nations 75th anniversary – 2020

Extinctions

B.4.1 Biodiversity loss and degradation, damages to and transformation of ecosystems are already key risks for every region due to past global warming and will continue to escalate with every increment of global warming (very high confidence). In terrestrial ecosystems, 3 to 14% of species assessed will likely face very high risk of extinction at global warming levels of 1.5°C, increasing up to 3 to 18% at 2°C, 3 to 29% at 3°C, 3 to 39% at 4°C, and 3 to 48% at 5°C. In ocean and coastal ecosystems, risk of biodiversity loss ranges between moderate and very high by 1.5°C global warming level and is moderate to very high by 2°C but with more ecosystems at high and very high risk (high confidence), and increases to high to very high across most ocean and coastal ecosystems by 3°C (medium to high confidence, depending on ecosystem). Very high extinction risk for endemic species in biodiversity hotspots is projected to at least double from 2% between 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels and to increase at least tenfold if warming rises from 1.5°C to 3°C (medium confidence).
IPCC Summary – 2021 Page 14

Many previous climate changes (like the ice ages) were much slower, taking at least 800 years. That’s enough time for trees and animals to migrate. Also, we were just hunter gatherers scattered across the landscape. Now our numbers are so high and our food needs so intense, we shape the landscape itself! We use nearly half the non-ice land on earth to graze animals and grow crops. Any last islands of forest or habitat are trapped in a sea of farmland. Nature cannot migrate when we’re running livestock or harvesters across the land. Yet we’re accelerating this planet into a hothouse world faster than previous climate changes! As the BBC said (June 2019)

Super-storms

Droughts have already been covered above under the point famine – but we need to realise that for some areas – it’s just not a drought any more.

Killer heatwaves that kill everyone in them!

We’ve all heard that climate change is causing ‘normal’ heatwaves to increase in frequency – and that they threaten the elderly and infirm. But what about heatwaves that no-one can survive – not even the young and fit? NASA says these 100% humidity heatwaves kill within hours if you do not have air conditioning – and they’re ‘only’ at at 35 C (95 F)!

Futurist Kim Stanley Robinson opens his climate thriller with the first major “Wet bulb” heatwave hitting India. This chapter is free. Please read it. I felt sick.

When do they start? We’ve already had a few small ones! Watch the videos above.
Where do they start? Wet bulb temperatures are increasing over the equator – but will stretch further north and south the more greenhouse gases we dump into the atmosphere.

Mega-fires

Increased loss of life, damage to property, and economic loss due to bushfires in southern Australia.

Yale reports on Australia – 2019 – hottest year on record, driest year on record, worst Mega-fires ever seen – like staring into the Gates of Hell.

Floods

This paper reveals that with just a rise of 2°C in global average temperatures, Australia will see a 11.3-30% intensification in rainfall from extreme precipitation events. This will occur even as some areas may become increasingly drought prone…

…The paper also went beyond the 2°C international Paris Agreement target, looking at what would happen with a 4°C rise in global temperature, which is a likely outcome based on current increases in the rate of carbon emissions. It produced a projected increase in rainfall for extreme events of 22-60%.
From Physics news Jan 2017

Sea level rise of some 1 foot by 2050, then 4 to 6 feet (or more) by 2100, rising some 6 to 12 inches (or more) each decade thereafter (An Illustrated Guide)

This may cause 100 million refugees!

Blizzards!

The physicists tell us that the atmosphere can carry 5% more water for every 1 degree it warms. This dries farmlands faster and carries more water for devastating downpours elsewhere. Not only this, but prevailing wind and weather patterns will change. Today’s trapped energy amounts to about 4 Hiroshima sized bombs per second! This extra heat is a form of extra energy in the wind, messing around with previously stable wind zones. Jet streams shift and become ‘drunk’ on global warming, shifting Arctic weather down across North America in severe snowstorms. Counter-intuitively, a hotter planet can shift snowstorms to cause devastating local snowstorms. As Mother Jones reports, “Go home Arctic, you’re drunk!“

Global warming can lead to local freezing by shifting Arctic weather in unexpected ways – 7 minutes