How Trump Junior’s emails change everything

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SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SUPER-BATTERY

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN SUPER-BATTERY, or why I disagree with Elon Musk on batteries for renewables. (I disagree with great sadness, as you might have noted I love everything else Elon does. 😉 )
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I don’t get it. Say we take Elon Musk’s price of $250 / kilowatt-hour for the capital cost of his battery system. (There’s good reason to think it might be $500 to $600 per Kwh!)
Let’s compare it to a 1 gigawatt nuclear power plant. $250 / kilowatt hour storage is one millionth of the output of a GIGAwatt power plant. So to scale up to one gigawatt, multiply the cost by a million which is $250 MILLION! But we can’t stop there, the figure is $250 million for just 1 hour of output at 1 Gigawatt.
A battery that can store about 16 hours (as solar PV only works about a third of a day) would be 16 * $250M = $4 BILLION dollars to store just 16 hours power of a 1 Gigawatt power plant.
That’s not all. You haven’t built the power source yet, this is just the battery! You’ve still got to build all the wind and solar you need to charge this beast. Remember the rough rule of 3. You’ve got to build at least 3 times the power you need (in this case 3 GIGS of wind and solar) so that 1 lot can run your town during the day, and the other 2/3rd’s can charge the batteries for night time. Add in some cloudy weather forecasting and you might actually have to overbuild your wind and solar by 4 or even 5 times to be sure!
Then there’s another problem. These batteries might only last 12 years, but nuclear power plants can last 60 years. So you’ve got to multiply that $4 billion by 5, bringing it up to $20 billion, just for batteries. (You still haven’t built the solar and wind farms yet!)
And this is based on Elon’s battery only price of $250 / kwh, not the full $500 to $600 per kwh that Forbes thinks is more likely given cooling and other infrastructure costs.
But despite American nuclear being legislated into oblivion, there are good examples around the world that show nuclear power could be built for $3 billion, maybe even $2 billion per GW.
A nuke will run all day and all night, no matter the time of year. We are still so, so far from anything being a ‘saviour’ for unreliable wind and solar energy. In contrast, there are future projections for various modular breeder reactors that eat nuclear waste to come off the line at about $1 billion / GW.
Posted in Renewable energy, storage, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Mark Jacobson’s famous 100% renewables study a LIE!

As Environment Progress explains:

Earlier this week an all-star group of energy and climate scholars published a scientific article in a prestigious journal pointing out that a Stanford professor’s proposal for powering the United States entirely on renewable energy sources rests upon a gigantic lie.

Over the last several years, Al Gore, Leonardo DiCaprio and Mark Ruffalo and many politicians have pointed to Stanford scientist Mark Jacobson’s modeling as proof that we can quickly and cheaply transition to 100 percent renewables.

What is the lie? That we can increase the amount of power from U.S. hydroelectric dams ten-fold. According to the U.S. Department of Energy and all major studies, the real potential increase is just one percent of that.

Without all that additional hydroelectricity, Jacobson’s entire house of cards falls apart. That’s because there’s no other way to store all of that unreliable solar and wind energy, given the shortcomings of current battery technologies.

The authors diplomatically call Jacobson’s lie an “error,” but it is in fact a lie and everyone — Jacobson included — knows it.

In his response, Jacobson writes, “Increasing hydropower’s peak instantaneous discharge rate was not a ‘modeling mistake’ but an assumption.”

What is an assumption? It is “a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof” [emphasis added].

But what have Jacobson, Gore, DiCaprio and politicians around the world been insisting for years? That Jacobson’s study proves not only that we can power the world with renewables-alone, but also that doing so would be cheaper and more environmentally friendly.

The actual study can be read here.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/06/16/1610381114.full

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UNESCO: reefs are stuffed

UNESCO: stop at 1.5 degrees or coral reefs will die. When planning your holidays over the next decade, please see the reefs before they’re gone. It’s inevitable now — this 3 minute video explains the maths.
Posted in Global Warming, Uncategorized | Leave a comment

2018 mayhem for the North West of Sydney

SEVENTY-FOUR extra buses between 8 and 9am on already congested roads.
MORE than 5000 people boarding buses at Macquarie University Station in the evening peak hour.
FIFTY-EIGHT extra buses on Waterloo Rd, Macquarie Park, between 8 and 9am.

It’s a major interruption to Sydney’s second largest CBD area.
Unbelievable. For what? The Metro line does not make statistical sense. The arguments for a Metro are that as a mostly standing single deck train, it creates faster unloading and reloading, which in turn allows more single-decker trains one after the other. But statistically more single deckers does not offset the loss of the double deckers that carry 50% more people. The math doesn’t work. Not only that, but they are vandalising the current tunnels to make reverting back to double-decker trains impossible. The tunnel is going to be 40cm narrower than double-deckers require. This is permanent vandalism of the line, locking us into what might turn out to be an inferior service.
Again, this SMH article has more statistics showing that a single decker is just not as good as a double-decker, despite the slightly faster boarding times on the single decker. It’s madness.
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Fantastic summary video of robot-cars

Everything I’ve been saying about robot cars for years now, all in one brilliant 10 minute report!

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Vox news 8 minute summary of new nukes!

I love this piece: reactors that *eat* nuclear waste, and where the law of gravity kicks in to shut down a reactor in a power failure.

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